UBS anticipates that US tariffs will have a limited impact on the global economy, primarily causing temporary volatility. In its base case, it expects positive performance across equities, bonds, commodities, and gold, while cautioning that prolonged tariffs on Canada and Mexico could lead to recession in those countries. The bank assigns a 35% probability to a downside scenario with aggressive tariffs, which would negatively affect risky assets, and a 15% chance for an upside scenario that could boost equities.